It’s Groundhog Day and the country’s most famous rodent, Punxsutawney Phil, has emerged from his burrow but failed to spot his shadow. According to tradition, that means we’re in store for an early spring with warmer temperatures on the horizon. But just how reliable is a weather prognosticating groundhog? Not very, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information. Since 1988 Phil has turned out to be right 13 times. He’s been wrong 15 times, meaning seeing or not seeing his shadow didn’t match the actual weather outcome.